From - Sat Jul 31 13:47:21 1999
Received: from smtp5.jps.net (smtp5.jps.net [209.63.224.55]) by mail2.relaypoint.net (8.6.11/8.6.12) with ESMTP id IAA20993 for <patriot@relaypoint.net>; Sat, 31 Jul 1999 08:56:22 -0700
Received: from default (209-239-213-56.lax.jps.net [209.239.213.56])
	by smtp5.jps.net (8.9.0/8.8.5) with SMTP id IAA09185;
	Sat, 31 Jul 1999 08:54:50 -0700 (PDT)
Message-ID: <008c01bedb6d$c61a8ea0$38d5efd1@default>
From: "John Hecht" <johnny@jps.net>
To: <Undisclosed.Recipients@smtp5.jps.net>
Subject: Fw: [Fwd: Fwd: Fw: Y2K - A plausible scenario]
Date: Sat, 31 Jul 1999 08:59:46 -0700
MIME-Version: 1.0
Content-Type: text/plain;
	charset="iso-8859-1"
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
X-Priority: 3
X-MSMail-Priority: Normal
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook Express 4.72.3110.1
X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V4.72.3110.3
X-UIDL: 967068a8c5ffcb0682d12bd1236edb90
Status: U
X-Mozilla-Status: 2001

>This is only a possible scenario but it comes from a very reliable and
knowledgable source with links to inside info if you catch my drift.
It is something to think about considering past actions of commander
bill.  Dennis=20
>
>Subject: Y2K - A plausible scenario
>
>
> While there are a myriad of possible permutations of events that could =
be
attributed to the impending Y2K event, this paper will focus on the most
likely series of events and probable scenario scripts based on currently
available information.
>
> Phase 1 =16 The Preparation begins
>
> In this scenario, events begin to unfold in the mid November 1999
timeframe. The general populace, nervous from a steady stream =
bombardment of
sensationalized press accounts of dire Y2K doom and gloom, and =
anticipating
potential financial problems, begin to withdraw their cash reserves from
savings accounts and close retirement accounts. These actions in the =
face of
a media blitz from financial institutions and the Federal Reserve =
assuring
depositors of the safety of their funds. The pollsters, examining this
phenomena, determine these actions are fueled by memories of the great
=13Crash of 29=14 and the stories of the depression. These fires are =
further
fueled by pundits, that reveal there is only enough =
=13cash-in-circulation=14 to
cover 4-6% of financial institutions savings deposits in the United =
States.
This figure does not include monies in-play or investments in the =
various
stock exchanges. In anticipation of these reports the Federal Reserve =
has
already bolstered the cash-in-circulation by and additional $50 billion.
However, in early November, financial analysts discover that with the
potential for stock market sell-offs and advanced profit taking, the =
spectre
of insufficient liquidity is raised in the media. Middle income casual
investors begin divestiture of their holdings and retain profits as a =
hedge
against Y2K events. As this occurs, lower and middle income families =
without
portfolio holdings look to their savings accounts for safety. The =
financial
institutions and Federal Reserve move with PSA=12s (Public service
announcements) and advertisements to assuage the public perception. This =
is
countered by Internet Pundits and self-proclaimed Y2K =13experts=14 that =
point
out that in the event of catastrophic power failure, the =13safe=14 =
funds in the
banks would be unavailable. The level of public unrest continues to =
build.
>
> Phase 2 =16 The First Signs
>
> Thanksgiving 1999 is celebrated with a higher-than-average number of =
full
family gatherings. Religious leaders proclaim that they are experiencing =
a
=13miraculous=14 surge in church attendance. Pop-psychologists describe =
the
events as a normal reaction to the uncertainty of the Y2K horizon.
Historically, the Friday following Thanksgiving is a bellwether of the
impending Christmas shopping season. Stores report brisk sales of =
camping
supplies and generators. High-end luxury merchandise is left gathering =
dust
as the stampede is to more =13conventional=14 items. This day also =
serves as an
indicator. Many financial institutions, discover that their ATM =
withdrawals
exceed expectations. By Monday, November 29th, most ATM=12s stand empty =
and
bank employees are shocked to find queues of customers awaiting the =
opening
of the bank. As account closures and large scale withdrawals deplete =
on-hand
cash reserves, ATM=12s go unserviced. This exacerbates the situation by
focusing more =13walk-in=14 customers to the financial institution =
branches. The
financial institution branches, are forced to call for supplemental cash
reserves. Armored car companies cannot keep up with the demands of the
financial institutions. Depositors are turned away as branches await the
delivery of cash reserves to service depositors. Befuddled citizenry,
unaware or the complexity the of American banking system, perceive only =
that
there is no money at the banks. Using the tools of today=12s =
interconnected
society (Internet, cell phone, telephone, Fax), the word quickly spreads =
and
there is a full fledged run on American financial institutions. The
Administration, aware of the potential powder keg, declares a =13Bank =
holiday=14
for 5 days and efforts are immediately focused on the =13cooling off=14 =
of the
situation. The closure of the financial institutions has exactly the
opposite affect. Those who did not have the opportunity to withdraw =
their
funds look at alternative liquidations to support themselves. Sell-offs =
and
profit taking are the order of the day in the major stock exchanges. =
While
several canny investors look at the sell-off as an opportunity to =
increase
their portfolio holdings, there are not nearly enough of them to offset =
the
number of sellers. As the market value plummets, the automatic safeties =
kick
in and trading is suspended to allow for market to =13cool=14. Brokerage =
houses
and fund managers issue checks to clients who are demanding payment for
their trades. At the banks, these checks are only honored as deposits =
and no
funds are disbursed. By mid- December, the value of the stock market has
plummeted to the 5000 point level. This action has triggered a cascade
effect throughout the financial community. Many young Gen X=12ers , who =
have
hedged heavily against their stock holdings are looking at a dismal =
holiday
season.
>
> Phase 3 =16 Tensions Rise
>
> The close of the twentieth century is a time of nervous apprehension.
Families that have taken precautions and have stockpiled food and water =
are
close mouthed about their preparations. The American public, reminiscent =
of
the days of gas shortages, develop small networks of friends and =
families
that scour stores and sales for anything that could be construed as =
being
=13Survival=14 oriented. All during the fall of 1999, the media has been
sensationalizing the Y2K phenomena. This builds to a crescendo in the =
week
after Christmas and before New Years eve. Hollywood, sensing massive =
profit
potential releases rushed movies to theaters across the nation. As a =
result
of the anxieties of impending doom, cults suddenly arise from nowhere =
that
espouse everything from the Gaia movement to UFO worshippers. Storefront
psychology centers crop up everywhere as scammers sieze on the moment to
partake of a profit. Home invasions rise dramatically as nere=12do wells
figure that there could be gold and currency stockpiled. =
Correspondingly,
these same individuals rapidly discover that guns and ammunition has =
been
stockpiled as well. The reports of self defense rise to a level where =
those
espousing disarmament of the public are ignored. The Constitutional =
Militia
movement, long dormant, is quickly seen as a means and method of
neighborhood safety. Initially condemned by the Federal authorities, =
local
governments quickly seek to enlist these forces to supplement a thinly
stretched and overtaxed public safety resource. The Federal government
acquiesces and accepts the local government actions. All eyes turn to =
the
clock as the countdown begins=05=05
>
> Phase 3 =16 Let the Games Begin
>
> January 1, 2000 arrives without measurable impact. Mainstream media =
has
reported incidents throughout the world as the millennium started at the
international dateline and arched across the globe. In New York City, =
Times
Square, revelers watch in awe as the Bacaratt Crystal globe descends =
marking
the year 2000. Much to everyone=12s relief, the lights remain on and all
appears well. This further excites the gathered throng as they now =
celebrate
what they percieve as a victory over the so-called millennium bug. There =
are
reports of scattered power outages and a variety of other problems along =
the
eastern seaboard, but, they are ignored as the partying continues. =
Prudent
businesses, immediately commence testing of their computer systems and
networks. As daylight breaks on New Years day, workers across America =
fan
out to determine if there are any lasting effects of the Y2k bug. The
weekend passes, on Monday, in many locales, commuters are startled to =
find
temporary stop signs in intersections throughout their towns and cities.
Traffic is snarled as commuters discover that the city stoplight control
system is a victim of Y2k. City officials assure citizens that =
everything
should be back to normal in a few days. In reality, panic has set in in =
the
city=12s traffic department. Calls to the system manufacturer have =
determined
that it could take months to get the replacement systems. The =
manufacturer
had not done an adequate level of Y2k testing and is haveing to replace =
all
the controllers in multiple cities. Faced with impending financial doom, =
the
manufacturer declares Chapter 7 and shuts down. This vignette is played =
out
by manufacturing companies repeatedly across the United States through =
the
month of January. Unemployment skyrockets as the ripple effect spreads
throughout the economy. By the end of January 2000, the international =
impact
begins to make it=12s presence known. Major shipping centers throughout =
the
world, recently modernized, grind to a halt. The critical infrastructure =
of
several nations is severely crippled. Products, normally and routinely
exported to US markets sit idle. Foodstuffs and perishables spoil and =
cannot
be shipped. In the US, grocery outlets begin to feel the crunch. =
Inventories
dwindle as the supply pipeline slows to a dribble. Major food =
distribution
centers begin lay-offs as there little for workers to do. Localized =
power
outages, initially thought to not have consequence disrupt shipments as =
18
wheel trucks have to alter their routes to maintain fuel supplies. Fresh
fruit and vegetables are literally non-existent. By the end of February =
the
situation has deteriorated to near critical.
>
> Phase 4 =16 The Fuse is lit.
>
> Social unrest becomes more and more prevalent through March and April. =
The
public, suspicious that they may have been deceived by the government, =
focus
on their local communities. The Federal government continues a campaign =
of
platitudes and assurances that all is we1l and everthing is under =
control.
But, to a large degree they are ignored. The minority community, egged =
on by
ambitious leaders, begin to protest that they are not receiving their =
fair
=13share=14 of goods and services. Local political leaders, anxious to =
please,
enact draconian anti-hoarding measures. Committees move through
neighborhoods, investigating reports of food hoarding and as a result, =
there
are several shootings. The local draconian measures are expanded to =
include
firearms. The Federal government, sensing a means to restore =
credibility,
swoops in and, using Federal resources, aids the local governments in =
their
disarmament actions. Initially overjoyed, the minority community is =
shocked
to find that they are not exempt and begin extensive protests as the =
Federal
authorities initiate house-to-house weapon and food searches throughout
their municipality. By the first warm days of May the stage is set for a
major confrontation.
>
> Phase 5 =16 BOOM!
>
> As the weather grows warmer tempers begin to heat up. All of the =
anxiety
and hostility that has built up since the Christmas season explodes in
violent clashes. In short order, anarchy reigns as multiple major
metropolitan areas in the US face rioting and looting. The Federal
government moves to quell the disorder only to be shocked to hear from =
the
military commanders that troops aren=12t responding to the call-up. =
Unwilling
to leave their families unprotected, troops stay home. Millions die as a
result of the coast-to-coast upheaval. The impact on the critical
infrastructure of the United States is severe. After 8-10 days, people =
begin
to heed the call for sanity. Church leaders and local politicians begin =
to
restore calm. By 15 days after the onset, cleanup and restoration has =
begun.
The Federal government, eager to re-assert itself, attempts to take =
control
of the restoration efforts. They are rebuffed by local communities and =
are
soon relegated to irrelevance.
>
> Phase 6 =16 A New Beginning
>
> As restoration efforts gain momentum, talks begin toward the =
restoration
of the Republic. Blame for all the events is firmly affixed to the =
Federal
Government. A new government is proposed. The current Government balks =
at
the idea, but is soon convinced as they become aware that there is =
little to
no support for their continuation=05
>
> What is next???
>
> Who really knows???=05.
>
> Respectfully submitted:
> Trident/Delta
>